2012 Visionary Forecast

Everyone else is doing it so why shouldn’t I?

What do I see in the Future, and I do see things in the future…Well.  Lets start with that war Between Iran and Isreal so many seem to be looking so forward to.  Every Great Nation or Empire needs a great enemy, for The United States of America Iran’s image has been carefully crafted and cultivated, with considerable help from what ever supreme leader we have had to deal with.

There appears to my eye, from where I sit, that a considerable amount of pressure is being placed on both countries by groups from the outside whether they be elected or otherwise.  First things first, there is the Quartet or The U.S., the U.N., the E.U. (U.K.) and Russia, it took me some considerable time just to figure out what the Quartet was.  Then we have different activist groups from across the political spectrum, some praying to God top destroy those Jews for not beating on the palestinian or any other arab group for that matter.  Pro palastuinian protesters messing with the Isrealie Blockade, not the smartest manuever and Isreal firing on them.  That last thing was most unexpected and I was honestly surprised, the government of Isreal stumbled into a massive PR trap.  It sounds callouse but that is what it was and I am sure the protesters understood the risk, either way how could they loose?  If the Isrealie people feel a little paranoid, considering their history I cvan’t say I blame them.  As for Iran with all the nuke Iran rhetoric bubbling from the US politic and popular media its hard to imagine they too are more than a bit pensive.  For some bizzarre reason, I feel Isreal and Iran may yet fool us all and keep the peace regardless of the physical cost.

As the United States wades in and continues to rattle their sabre which, of course, will provoke a great deal of trash talk from Iranian hardliners expect the American media, the only media I know, to pay more attention yet, as hard as that maybe to believe.  I’m am sensing an increase in rhetoruic and manuevering up until somewhere between June’s new moon and July’s new moon.  There is a potentail tipping point here, rather than watching the direct story istead watch for the stranger stories that circle around the fringes.  The topics being surprisingly humaniatrian for two countries about to go to war.  I don’t see the straights of Hormuz being closed by any human hand from any country.  Regardless, oil, in the futures market especailly will begin to creep upward, I’ll be watching the summer and fall delivery prices on initial contracts and continued trading.  Fall out in the cash price market won’t be felt until the June/July tipping point already mentioned.  This time there is a strong possibility of investors fleeing the oil market, mostly small investors and a few very conservative institutional traders meaning the effect on cash oil prices, especially gasoline will be more severe than to date.  I am expecting that pressure to continue until the end of the year, mostly due to increasing demand in asia as the cold season starts.

June/July is when things get a bit strange.  Some considerable volitility can be expected in currency and stock markets, not only from the price of oil/gas but the fall out in the food and energy sector also putting intense downward pressure on retail growth and a increase in unemployment.  Unemployment rates will in all likely will begin to climb upwards post vernal equinox of course none of this takes a true visionnary to predict, practically every one is in one way or the other.  The weirdness is in the value of the dollar, now I am not an economist and I can’t say any rational train of thought takes me to this point it is just a feeling.  There will be, I feel, a deflationary trend developing that will become quite obvious post the June/July tipping point.  I realize that this is to some extent counter modern logic from the world of academics and economics and I don’t understand how it could happen but as I write this I am gettting a bad case of The Creep.

I guess the only way I could imagine it happening is that if a very large precentage of the global population begins to buy dollars as a sfe haven.  Gold and other hard commodituies will take a huge hit and will stabilize some time post halloween.  Now deflation is when the dollar gains value, buying power, rather than the steady trend of loosing value.  The Fedral Reserve doesn’t have a lot of room to move on this as the prime rate and the short term rates are already so low.  The dollar gaining value will make servicing the public debt nearly impossible, in other words the amount of dollars/resources the debt is worth will climb relative to the value of dollars/resources from the time the debt was aquired.  Shorting capital in the system will only drive the value of the dollar higher.  Can’t borrow, can only print, but if the presses add more paper dollars or the computers add more cedit too quickly the system will crash.  All those guys in banking know this though and there will be considerable almost quiet finagling in the background to keep the ball rolling until after the november presidentail election.  keep a watchful eye for odd news stories dealingwith the financail sector, follow up on the ones that seem incomplete.

Obama will be reelected, this potato is too hot which is why the republican’s haven’t mustered a serious social conservative candidate.  The world hasn’t gotten bad enough for Ron Paul to stand a serious chance but I am expecting a serious showing from his campaign through super tuesday.

Don’t get depressed, you maybe unemployed, but the dollars you have will possess more buying power.  The combination of rising commodities prices and a rising dollar will produce some bizarre activity in retail, dropping prices for consumer goods, the new luxuries, with patience, thought, attention, and a willingness to learn how to make the most out of less the lower 80% of the american population can get through this with less pain then they anticipate.

Obama will win, even Meta agrees and she has been watching elections since she was small.  He will be forced to deal with Public debt, however many trillion it actually ends up being.  There are also issues with global and private debt, especailly with respect to loans that were aquired by financail entities under pretenses that would have been illegal before 1999.

Somewhere after triple witching, the last friday of October, most likily after the election I suspect the federal government will burn short term debt ergo…savings bonds and 90 day note, (T-strips) possibly Fanny Mae although I feel that is less likely, which will eliminate about half the public debt load.  This will signal a global purge of fraudulent or toxic debt forcing a major readjustment in resource allocation.  Don’t worry Conserative Libertines, the incredibly wealthy will still be pretty damn wealthy.  Currency reform won’t be an issue until 2013 and even then I find it doubtful.  Debt moratorium’s have happened before but this go around won’t be a total moratorium.  The money that has been rapidly shifting hands over the last few years and finding it way into hidden pockets and bank accounts will simply stop.

To put it mildly it will be a mess of herculean porortions and I fear we will watch Barack Obama our president age more each time we see him.

So what about 2012?  Is it the end of the world?   No, That would be too easy.

Why is it that when anyone talks about a shift in paradigm its always choosing light over dark, love over hate, compassion over opperssion,peace over war or sustanability over greed?  These all are poles, diameterically opposed, in our already existing paradigm, or spectrum.  We live in a dualistic world where all things are arranged in opposition in a way that makes sense too us as human beings.  Choosing one or the other changes nothing.  This is a possible shift into a reality we are unaware of, that’s what paradigm shift means.

So with all that pressure, mostly economic, and with the looming threat of traumatic climate change will we be watching as the great house has it windows and doors flung open, letting in the air and allowing each of us to more clearly see the greater world outside?  The unknown is always terrifying which why we hear things like “Kill Shot”, “Planet killer”, “civil war”. “nuclear war” and so on.  It is much like death another great rite of passage.  This great cycling down is the leading into The End Of The Age Of Empires whether they be military, economic, religious or philosophical.  If we managed to see past our individual hatred to find comon ground, work to keep the doors and windows open and allow the existance of unknowable possibilities.  Will we continue on only allowing for one issue or two maybe to cause our blood to run hot and the breath of war to fill our nostrils?

We can go back into the chaos or we can move forward on a great adventure into a reality which is entirly unknown.  We can blaze the trail in the great untouched wilderness. Either back or forward is equally easy, or difficult depending on the individual.

I’m probably wrong anyways, wouldn’t be the first time.

Just call me Crazy.

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